Gibraltar vs São Tomé and Príncipe Prediction: a narrow Gibraltar win

The prediction

Gibraltar favoured at 74% — model xG 1.8 vs 1.0.

Every market we call on this match

• Gibraltar or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• Gibraltar (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today76%1.32
• Gibraltar to winMatch result tips today74%1.35
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.9%9.17

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Gibraltar at 74 percent, with the draw at 16 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 1.8 goals from Gibraltar and 1.0 from São Tomé and Príncipe, a combined 2.8, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Gibraltar or draw at 85 percent, Gibraltar (draw no bet) at 76 percent and Gibraltar to win at 74 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.9 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Gibraltar1.80

São Tomé and Príncipe0.97

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.