Grupo Desportivo de Bragança vs CD Celoricense Prediction: a narrow Grupo Desportivo de Bragança win

The prediction

Grupo Desportivo de Bragança favoured at 56% — model xG 1.6 vs 0.8.

Every market we call on this match

• Grupo Desportivo de Bragança or drawDouble chance tips today82%1.22
• Grupo Desportivo de Bragança (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today76%1.32
• Grupo Desportivo de Bragança to winMatch result tips today56%1.79
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today14.2%7.04

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Grupo Desportivo de Bragança at 56 percent, with the draw at 26 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.6 goals from Grupo Desportivo de Bragança and 0.8 from CD Celoricense, a combined 2.4, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Grupo Desportivo de Bragança or draw at 82 percent, Grupo Desportivo de Bragança (draw no bet) at 76 percent and Grupo Desportivo de Bragança to win at 56 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 14.2 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Grupo Desportivo de Bragança1.58

CD Celoricense0.83

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.