Ikorodu City vs Barau FC Prediction: a narrow Ikorodu City win

The prediction

Ikorodu City favoured at 63% — model xG 1.6 vs 0.6.

Every market we call on this match

• Ikorodu City or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• Ikorodu City (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today84%1.19
• Ikorodu City to winMatch result tips today63%1.59
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today18.2%5.49

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Ikorodu City at 63 percent, with the draw at 26 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 1.6 goals from Ikorodu City and 0.6 from Barau FC, a combined 2.1, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Ikorodu City or draw at 85 percent, Ikorodu City (draw no bet) at 84 percent and Ikorodu City to win at 63 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 18.2 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Ikorodu City1.56

Barau FC0.59

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.