Ikorodu City vs Enugu Rangers International Prediction: a narrow Ikorodu City win

The prediction

Ikorodu City favoured at 57% — model xG 1.6 vs 0.8.

Every market we call on this match

• Ikorodu City or drawDouble chance tips today83%1.20
• Ikorodu City (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today76%1.32
• Ikorodu City to winMatch result tips today57%1.75
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today13.7%7.30

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Ikorodu City at 57 percent, with the draw at 26 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.6 goals from Ikorodu City and 0.8 from Enugu Rangers International, a combined 2.5, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Ikorodu City or draw at 83 percent, Ikorodu City (draw no bet) at 76 percent and Ikorodu City to win at 57 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 13.7 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Ikorodu City1.62

Enugu Rangers International0.85

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.