Japan vs Ecuador Prediction: a Japan win

The prediction

Every market we call on this match

• Japan (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today85%1.18
• Japan or drawDouble chance tips today75%1.33
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today16.5%6.06

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Japan at 46 percent, with the draw at 29 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.7 goals from Japan and 0.6 from Ecuador, a combined 2.3, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Two markets clear our bar on this fixture: Japan (draw no bet) at 85 percent and Japan or draw at 75 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 16.5 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Japan1.71

Ecuador0.63

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.