Kano Pillars vs Katsina United Prediction: a Kano Pillars win

The prediction

Kano Pillars favoured at 67% — model xG 1.7 vs 0.6.

Every market we call on this match

• Kano Pillars or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• Kano Pillars (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today85%1.18
• Kano Pillars to winMatch result tips today67%1.49
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today16.6%6.02

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Kano Pillars at 67 percent, with the draw at 23 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 1.7 goals from Kano Pillars and 0.6 from Katsina United, a combined 2.4, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Kano Pillars or draw at 85 percent, Kano Pillars (draw no bet) at 85 percent and Kano Pillars to win at 67 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 16.6 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Kano Pillars1.74

Katsina United0.61

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.