Kwara United vs Nasarawa United Prediction: a narrow Kwara United win

The prediction

Kwara United favoured at 59% — model xG 1.5 vs 0.6.

Every market we call on this match

• Kwara United or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• Kwara United (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today81%1.23
• Kwara United to winMatch result tips today59%1.69
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today17.9%5.59

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Kwara United at 59 percent, with the draw at 28 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.5 goals from Kwara United and 0.6 from Nasarawa United, a combined 2.1, which is a low total and argues against the goals markets. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Kwara United or draw at 85 percent, Kwara United (draw no bet) at 81 percent and Kwara United to win at 59 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 17.9 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Kwara United1.46

Nasarawa United0.64

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.