Louisville City FC vs Indy Eleven Prediction: a narrow Louisville City FC win

The prediction

Louisville City FC favoured at 63% — model xG 2.0 vs 1.0.

Every market we call on this match

• Louisville City FC or drawDouble chance tips today84%1.19
• Louisville City FC (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today79%1.27
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today68%1.47
• Louisville City FC to winMatch result tips today63%1.59
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.1%9.90

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Louisville City FC at 63 percent, with the draw at 21 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 2.0 goals from Louisville City FC and 1.0 from Indy Eleven, a combined 3.0, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Louisville City FC or draw at 84 percent, Louisville City FC (draw no bet) at 79 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 68 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.1 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Louisville City FC1.98

Indy Eleven0.99

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.