Maghreb Fes vs ASEC Mimosas Prediction: a narrow Maghreb Fes win

The prediction

Every market we call on this match

• Maghreb Fes or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• Maghreb Fes (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today78%1.28
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today18.5%5.41

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Maghreb Fes at 55 percent, with the draw at 30 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.4 goals from Maghreb Fes and 0.6 from ASEC Mimosas, a combined 2.0, which is a low total and argues against the goals markets. Two markets clear our bar on this fixture: Maghreb Fes or draw at 85 percent and Maghreb Fes (draw no bet) at 78 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 18.5 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Maghreb Fes1.35

ASEC Mimosas0.64

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.