Manchester City vs Sunderland Prediction: a Manchester City win

The prediction

Manchester City favoured at 66% — model xG 1.9 vs 0.8.

Every market we call on this match

• Manchester City or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• Manchester City (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today83%1.20
• Manchester City to winMatch result tips today66%1.52
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today63%1.59
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today12.6%7.94

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Manchester City at 66 percent, with the draw at 21 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 1.9 goals from Manchester City and 0.8 from Sunderland, a combined 2.7, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Manchester City or draw at 85 percent, Manchester City (draw no bet) at 83 percent and Manchester City to win at 66 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 12.6 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Manchester City1.91

Sunderland0.81

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.