Mauritius vs Sri Lanka Prediction: a narrow Sri Lanka win

The prediction

Every market we call on this match

• Mauritius or Sri LankaDouble chance tips today73%1.37
• Sri Lanka (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today63%1.59
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today12.2%8.20

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Sri Lanka at 47 percent, with the draw at 27 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.1 goals from Mauritius and 1.5 from Sri Lanka, a combined 2.6, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Two markets clear our bar on this fixture: Mauritius or Sri Lanka at 73 percent and Sri Lanka (draw no bet) at 63 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 12.2 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Mauritius1.14

Sri Lanka1.51

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.