Mexico vs Chile Prediction: a narrow Mexico win

The prediction

Mexico favoured at 59% — model xG 1.8 vs 0.9.

Every market we call on this match

• Mexico or drawDouble chance tips today82%1.22
• Mexico (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today78%1.28
• Mexico to winMatch result tips today59%1.69
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today12.1%8.26

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Mexico at 59 percent, with the draw at 24 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.8 goals from Mexico and 0.9 from Chile, a combined 2.7, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Mexico or draw at 82 percent, Mexico (draw no bet) at 78 percent and Mexico to win at 59 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 12.1 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Mexico1.78

Chile0.91

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.