Miami FC vs Charleston Battery Prediction: a narrow Charleston Battery win

The prediction

Charleston Battery favoured at 57% — model xG 1.1 vs 1.9.

Every market we call on this match

• Charleston Battery or drawDouble chance tips today80%1.25
• Charleston Battery (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today74%1.35
• Charleston Battery to winMatch result tips today57%1.75
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.5%9.52

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Charleston Battery at 57 percent, with the draw at 22 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.1 goals from Miami FC and 1.9 from Charleston Battery, a combined 3.0, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Charleston Battery or draw at 80 percent, Charleston Battery (draw no bet) at 74 percent and Charleston Battery to win at 57 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.5 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Miami FC1.13

Charleston Battery1.88

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.