Nasarawa United vs Kun Khalifat FC Prediction: a narrow Nasarawa United win

The prediction

Nasarawa United favoured at 63% — model xG 1.7 vs 0.7.

Every market we call on this match

• Nasarawa United or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• Nasarawa United (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today82%1.22
• Nasarawa United to winMatch result tips today63%1.59
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today63%1.59
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today15.6%6.41

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Nasarawa United at 63 percent, with the draw at 24 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 1.7 goals from Nasarawa United and 0.7 from Kun Khalifat FC, a combined 2.4, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Nasarawa United or draw at 85 percent, Nasarawa United (draw no bet) at 82 percent and Nasarawa United to win at 63 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 15.6 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Nasarawa United1.67

Kun Khalifat FC0.70

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.