Nasarawa United vs Rivers United Prediction: a narrow Nasarawa United win

The prediction

Nasarawa United favoured at 58% — model xG 1.5 vs 0.7.

Every market we call on this match

• Nasarawa United or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• Nasarawa United (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today80%1.25
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today64%1.56
• Nasarawa United to winMatch result tips today58%1.72
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today17.2%5.81

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Nasarawa United at 58 percent, with the draw at 28 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.5 goals from Nasarawa United and 0.7 from Rivers United, a combined 2.1, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Nasarawa United or draw at 85 percent, Nasarawa United (draw no bet) at 80 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 64 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 17.2 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Nasarawa United1.48

Rivers United0.67

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.