Newcastle United vs Hull City Prediction: a narrow Newcastle United win

The prediction

Every market we call on this match

• Newcastle United or Hull CityDouble chance tips today77%1.30
• Newcastle United (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today69%1.45
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today67%1.49
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.6%9.43

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Newcastle United at 53 percent, with the draw at 23 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.8 goals from Newcastle United and 1.2 from Hull City, a combined 3.0, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Newcastle United or Hull City at 77 percent, Newcastle United (draw no bet) at 69 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 67 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.6 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Newcastle United1.82

Hull City1.22

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.