Newport County vs York City Prediction: a narrow York City win

The prediction

York City favoured at 60% — model xG 1.0 vs 1.9.

Every market we call on this match

• York City or drawDouble chance tips today83%1.20
• York City (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today77%1.30
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today61%1.64
• York City to winMatch result tips today60%1.67
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.6%9.43

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has York City at 60 percent, with the draw at 22 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 1.0 goals from Newport County and 1.9 from York City, a combined 2.9, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by York City or draw at 83 percent, York City (draw no bet) at 77 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 61 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.6 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Newport County1.01

York City1.88

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.