Niger Tornadoes vs Kun Khalifat FC Prediction: a narrow Niger Tornadoes win

The prediction

Niger Tornadoes favoured at 63% — model xG 1.7 vs 0.7.

Every market we call on this match

• Niger Tornadoes or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• Niger Tornadoes (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today83%1.20
• Niger Tornadoes to winMatch result tips today63%1.59
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today15.2%6.58

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Niger Tornadoes at 63 percent, with the draw at 24 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 1.7 goals from Niger Tornadoes and 0.7 from Kun Khalifat FC, a combined 2.4, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Niger Tornadoes or draw at 85 percent, Niger Tornadoes (draw no bet) at 83 percent and Niger Tornadoes to win at 63 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 15.2 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Niger Tornadoes1.71

Kun Khalifat FC0.71

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.