NPS Volos vs AEK Athens Prediction: a AEK Athens win

The prediction

AEK Athens favoured at 65% — model xG 0.8 vs 1.9.

Every market we call on this match

• AEK Athens or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• AEK Athens (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today82%1.22
• AEK Athens to winMatch result tips today65%1.54
• Correct score 0-1Correct score tips today12.5%8.00

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has AEK Athens at 65 percent, with the draw at 22 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 0.8 goals from NPS Volos and 1.9 from AEK Athens, a combined 2.7, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: AEK Athens or draw at 85 percent, AEK Athens (draw no bet) at 82 percent and AEK Athens to win at 65 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 0-1, though at 12.5 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

NPS Volos0.83

AEK Athens1.88

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.