Oldham Athletic vs Chesterfield Prediction: a narrow Oldham Athletic win

The prediction

Every market we call on this match

• Oldham Athletic or ChesterfieldDouble chance tips today72%1.39
• Oldham Athletic (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today62%1.61
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today62%1.61
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today12.6%7.94

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result it splits close to evenly, 39 percent Oldham Athletic, 28 percent the draw and 33 percent Chesterfield. That is a fixture the model will not call a winner in, and the honest read is that the value sits in the other markets rather than on the result. The model expects roughly 1.4 goals from Oldham Athletic and 1.1 from Chesterfield, a combined 2.5, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Oldham Athletic or Chesterfield at 72 percent, Oldham Athletic (draw no bet) at 62 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 62 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 12.6 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Oldham Athletic1.42

Chesterfield1.09

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.