Palestine vs New Zealand Prediction: a narrow Palestine win

The prediction

Palestine favoured at 58% — model xG 1.6 vs 0.8.

Every market we call on this match

• Palestine or drawDouble chance tips today84%1.19
• Palestine (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today78%1.28
• Palestine to winMatch result tips today58%1.72
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today14.2%7.04

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Palestine at 58 percent, with the draw at 25 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.6 goals from Palestine and 0.8 from New Zealand, a combined 2.4, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Palestine or draw at 84 percent, Palestine (draw no bet) at 78 percent and Palestine to win at 58 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 14.2 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Palestine1.63

New Zealand0.81

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.