Plateau United vs Shooting Stars Prediction: a Plateau United win

The prediction

Plateau United favoured at 65% — model xG 1.7 vs 0.6.

Every market we call on this match

• Plateau United or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• Plateau United (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today85%1.18
• Plateau United to winMatch result tips today65%1.54
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today62%1.61
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today17.1%5.85

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Plateau United at 65 percent, with the draw at 24 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 1.7 goals from Plateau United and 0.6 from Shooting Stars, a combined 2.3, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Plateau United or draw at 85 percent, Plateau United (draw no bet) at 85 percent and Plateau United to win at 65 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 17.1 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Plateau United1.67

Shooting Stars0.61

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.