Racing Club vs Sarmiento Prediction: a narrow Racing Club win

The prediction

Racing Club favoured at 57% — model xG 1.6 vs 0.9.

Every market we call on this match

• Racing Club or drawDouble chance tips today84%1.19
• Racing Club (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today73%1.37
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today61%1.64
• Racing Club to winMatch result tips today57%1.75
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today13.3%7.52

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Racing Club at 57 percent, with the draw at 27 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.6 goals from Racing Club and 0.9 from Sarmiento, a combined 2.5, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Racing Club or draw at 84 percent, Racing Club (draw no bet) at 73 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 61 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 13.3 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Racing Club1.56

Sarmiento0.90

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.