Ranchers Bees vs Rivers United Prediction: a Ranchers Bees win

The prediction

Ranchers Bees favoured at 64% — model xG 1.8 vs 0.8.

Every market we call on this match

• Ranchers Bees or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• Ranchers Bees (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today82%1.22
• Ranchers Bees to winMatch result tips today64%1.56
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today13.3%7.52

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Ranchers Bees at 64 percent, with the draw at 23 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 1.8 goals from Ranchers Bees and 0.8 from Rivers United, a combined 2.6, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Ranchers Bees or draw at 85 percent, Ranchers Bees (draw no bet) at 82 percent and Ranchers Bees to win at 64 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 13.3 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Ranchers Bees1.81

Rivers United0.80

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.