Real SC vs FC Serpa Prediction: a narrow FC Serpa win

The prediction

Every market we call on this match

• Real SC or FC SerpaDouble chance tips today76%1.32
• FC Serpa (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today62%1.61
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today11.1%9.01

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has FC Serpa at 47 percent, with the draw at 25 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.3 goals from Real SC and 1.7 from FC Serpa, a combined 3.0, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Two markets clear our bar on this fixture: Real SC or FC Serpa at 76 percent and FC Serpa (draw no bet) at 62 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 11.1 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Real SC1.30

FC Serpa1.67

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.