Rhode Island Union vs Loudoun United FC Prediction: a narrow Rhode Island Union win

The prediction

Rhode Island Union favoured at 62% — model xG 1.8 vs 0.9.

Every market we call on this match

• Rhode Island Union or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• Rhode Island Union (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today80%1.25
• Rhode Island Union to winMatch result tips today62%1.61
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today12.3%8.13

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Rhode Island Union at 62 percent, with the draw at 23 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 1.8 goals from Rhode Island Union and 0.9 from Loudoun United FC, a combined 2.7, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Rhode Island Union or draw at 85 percent, Rhode Island Union (draw no bet) at 80 percent and Rhode Island Union to win at 62 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 12.3 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Rhode Island Union1.83

Loudoun United FC0.87

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.