Salford City vs Crawley Town Prediction: a narrow Salford City win

The prediction

Salford City favoured at 60% — model xG 1.8 vs 0.9.

Every market we call on this match

• Salford City or drawDouble chance tips today83%1.20
• Salford City (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today78%1.28
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today68%1.47
• Salford City to winMatch result tips today60%1.67
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today11.8%8.47

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Salford City at 60 percent, with the draw at 23 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.8 goals from Salford City and 0.9 from Crawley Town, a combined 2.7, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Salford City or draw at 83 percent, Salford City (draw no bet) at 78 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 68 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 11.8 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Salford City1.79

Crawley Town0.93

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.