San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC Prediction: a narrow Nashville SC win

The prediction

Model backs Over 1.5 at 81% — combined xG 3.1.

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today81%1.23
• San Jose Earthquakes or Nashville SCDouble chance tips today76%1.32
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today64%1.56
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.6%9.43

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result it splits close to evenly, 35 percent San Jose Earthquakes, 24 percent the draw and 41 percent Nashville SC. That is a fixture the model will not call a winner in, and the honest read is that the value sits in the other markets rather than on the result. The model expects roughly 1.5 goals from San Jose Earthquakes and 1.6 from Nashville SC, a combined 3.1, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Over 1.5 goals at 81 percent, San Jose Earthquakes or Nashville SC at 76 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 64 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.6 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

San Jose Earthquakes1.52

Nashville SC1.63

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.