SC Freiburg vs Borussia M'gladbach Prediction: a narrow SC Freiburg win

The prediction

Every market we call on this match

• SC Freiburg or drawDouble chance tips today77%1.30
• SC Freiburg (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today72%1.39
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today9.7%10.31

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has SC Freiburg at 54 percent, with the draw at 24 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 2.0 goals from SC Freiburg and 1.2 from Borussia M'gladbach, a combined 3.2, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Two markets clear our bar on this fixture: SC Freiburg or draw at 77 percent and SC Freiburg (draw no bet) at 72 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 9.7 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

SC Freiburg2.00

Borussia M'gladbach1.24

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.