Seattle Sounders FC vs CF Montréal Prediction: a narrow Seattle Sounders FC win

The prediction

Seattle Sounders FC favoured at 61% — model xG 2.0 vs 1.1.

Every market we call on this match

• Seattle Sounders FC or drawDouble chance tips today83%1.20
• Seattle Sounders FC (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today78%1.28
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today67%1.49
• Seattle Sounders FC to winMatch result tips today61%1.64
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.0%10.00

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Seattle Sounders FC at 61 percent, with the draw at 21 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 2.0 goals from Seattle Sounders FC and 1.1 from CF Montréal, a combined 3.0, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Seattle Sounders FC or draw at 83 percent, Seattle Sounders FC (draw no bet) at 78 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 67 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.0 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Seattle Sounders FC1.99

CF Montréal1.05

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.