Shooting Stars vs Katsina United Prediction: a Shooting Stars win

The prediction

Shooting Stars favoured at 64% — model xG 1.6 vs 0.6.

Every market we call on this match

• Shooting Stars or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• Shooting Stars (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today85%1.18
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today66%1.52
• Shooting Stars to winMatch result tips today64%1.56
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today17.6%5.68

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Shooting Stars at 64 percent, with the draw at 25 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 1.6 goals from Shooting Stars and 0.6 from Katsina United, a combined 2.2, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Shooting Stars or draw at 85 percent, Shooting Stars (draw no bet) at 85 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 66 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 17.6 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Shooting Stars1.62

Katsina United0.60

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.