Shooting Stars vs Nasarawa United Prediction: a narrow Shooting Stars win

The prediction

Shooting Stars favoured at 59% — model xG 1.5 vs 0.7.

Every market we call on this match

• Shooting Stars or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• Shooting Stars (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today80%1.25
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today62%1.61
• Shooting Stars to winMatch result tips today59%1.69
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today16.6%6.02

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Shooting Stars at 59 percent, with the draw at 27 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.5 goals from Shooting Stars and 0.7 from Nasarawa United, a combined 2.2, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Shooting Stars or draw at 85 percent, Shooting Stars (draw no bet) at 80 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 62 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 16.6 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Shooting Stars1.53

Nasarawa United0.69

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.