South Korea vs Uruguay Prediction: a narrow South Korea win

The prediction

South Korea favoured at 58% — model xG 1.6 vs 0.8.

Every market we call on this match

• South Korea or drawDouble chance tips today84%1.19
• South Korea (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today78%1.28
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today60%1.67
• South Korea to winMatch result tips today58%1.72
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today14.5%6.90

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has South Korea at 58 percent, with the draw at 26 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.6 goals from South Korea and 0.8 from Uruguay, a combined 2.4, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by South Korea or draw at 84 percent, South Korea (draw no bet) at 78 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 60 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 14.5 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

South Korea1.61

Uruguay0.80

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.