South Korea vs Venezuela Prediction: a South Korea win

The prediction

South Korea favoured at 74% — model xG 2.1 vs 0.7.

Every market we call on this match

• South Korea or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• South Korea (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today85%1.18
• South Korea to winMatch result tips today74%1.35
• Correct score 2-0Correct score tips today13.4%7.46

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has South Korea at 74 percent, with the draw at 17 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 2.1 goals from South Korea and 0.7 from Venezuela, a combined 2.8, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: South Korea or draw at 85 percent, South Korea (draw no bet) at 85 percent and South Korea to win at 74 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 2-0, though at 13.4 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

South Korea2.14

Venezuela0.70

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.