Sport Comércio e Salgueiros vs Estoril Praia Prediction: a narrow Sport Comércio e Salgueiros win

The prediction

Every market we call on this match

• Sport Comércio e Salgueiros or drawDouble chance tips today77%1.30
• Sport Comércio e Salgueiros (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today69%1.45
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today66%1.52
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today11.6%8.62

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Sport Comércio e Salgueiros at 52 percent, with the draw at 25 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.6 goals from Sport Comércio e Salgueiros and 1.1 from Estoril Praia, a combined 2.7, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Sport Comércio e Salgueiros or draw at 77 percent, Sport Comércio e Salgueiros (draw no bet) at 69 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 66 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 11.6 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Sport Comércio e Salgueiros1.65

Estoril Praia1.07

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.