Sporting CP vs FC Arouca Prediction: a Sporting CP win

The prediction

Sporting CP favoured at 74% — model xG 2.2 vs 0.8.

Every market we call on this match

• Sporting CP or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• Sporting CP (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today85%1.18
• Sporting CP to winMatch result tips today74%1.35
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today61%1.64
• Correct score 2-0Correct score tips today12.4%8.06

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Sporting CP at 74 percent, with the draw at 17 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 2.2 goals from Sporting CP and 0.8 from FC Arouca, a combined 3.0, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Sporting CP or draw at 85 percent, Sporting CP (draw no bet) at 85 percent and Sporting CP to win at 74 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 2-0, though at 12.4 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Sporting CP2.24

FC Arouca0.77

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.