Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake Prediction: a narrow Real Salt Lake win

The prediction

Model backs Over 1.5 at 81% — combined xG 3.1.

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today81%1.23
• Sporting Kansas City or Real Salt LakeDouble chance tips today76%1.32
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today67%1.49
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.6%9.43

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result it splits close to evenly, 34 percent Sporting Kansas City, 24 percent the draw and 42 percent Real Salt Lake. That is a fixture the model will not call a winner in, and the honest read is that the value sits in the other markets rather than on the result. The model expects roughly 1.5 goals from Sporting Kansas City and 1.6 from Real Salt Lake, a combined 3.1, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Over 1.5 goals at 81 percent, Sporting Kansas City or Real Salt Lake at 76 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 67 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.6 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Sporting Kansas City1.51

Real Salt Lake1.64

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.