SV Ried vs Wolfsberger AC Prediction: a narrow SV Ried win

The prediction

SV Ried favoured at 58% — model xG 1.9 vs 1.1.

Every market we call on this match

• SV Ried or drawDouble chance tips today80%1.25
• SV Ried (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today75%1.33
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today68%1.47
• SV Ried to winMatch result tips today58%1.72
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.5%9.52

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has SV Ried at 58 percent, with the draw at 22 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.9 goals from SV Ried and 1.1 from Wolfsberger AC, a combined 3.0, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by SV Ried or draw at 80 percent, SV Ried (draw no bet) at 75 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 68 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.5 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

SV Ried1.89

Wolfsberger AC1.09

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.