Swansea City vs Burnley Prediction: a narrow Swansea City win

The prediction

Every market we call on this match

• Swansea City or BurnleyDouble chance tips today73%1.37
• Swansea City (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today72%1.39
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today64%1.56
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today12.6%7.94

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Swansea City at 43 percent, with the draw at 27 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.6 goals from Swansea City and 0.9 from Burnley, a combined 2.5, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Swansea City or Burnley at 73 percent, Swansea City (draw no bet) at 72 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 64 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 12.6 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Swansea City1.57

Burnley0.95

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.