Ligue 3
US Concarneau vs Bastia Prediction: a narrow US Concarneau win
Our model makes US Concarneau vs Bastia a narrow US Concarneau win, with a most likely score of 1-0 and high confidence at 4710%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Public record
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 207 wins and 94 losses from 301 settled picks, a 68.8% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- US Concarneau or drawDouble chance tips today74%1.35
- US Concarneau (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today71%1.41
- Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today14.1%7.09
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has US Concarneau at 47 percent, with the draw at 27 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.4 goals from US Concarneau and 0.9 from Bastia, a combined 2.3, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Two markets clear our bar on this fixture: US Concarneau or draw at 74 percent and US Concarneau (draw no bet) at 71 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 14.1 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.