VfL Bochum 1848 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Prediction: a narrow VfL Bochum 1848 win

The prediction

Both teams to score priced 61% — both attacks priced to score (xG 1.5 / 1.6).

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today80%1.25
• VfL Bochum 1848 or SpVgg Greuther FürthDouble chance tips today75%1.33
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today69%1.45
• Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today61%1.64
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.7%9.35

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has VfL Bochum 1848 at 49 percent, with the draw at 25 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.5 goals from VfL Bochum 1848 and 1.6 from SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined 3.1, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 80 percent, VfL Bochum 1848 or SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 75 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 69 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.7 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result and over 2.5 goals here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

VfL Bochum 18481.52

SpVgg Greuther Fürth1.60

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.