York City vs Swindon Town Prediction: a narrow York City win

The prediction

Every market we call on this match

• York City or drawDouble chance tips today79%1.27
• York City (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today78%1.28
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today71%1.41
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today9.8%10.20

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has York City at 54 percent, with the draw at 25 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 2.0 goals from York City and 1.1 from Swindon Town, a combined 3.1, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: York City or draw at 79 percent, York City (draw no bet) at 78 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 71 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 9.8 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

York City2.03

Swindon Town1.08

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.