1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel Prediction: a narrow 1. FC Heidenheim win

The prediction

Both teams to score priced 65% — both attacks priced to score (xG 1.8 / 1.8).

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today83%1.20
• 1. FC Heidenheim or Holstein KielDouble chance tips today75%1.33
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today70%1.43
• Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today65%1.54
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today63%1.59
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today8.7%11.49

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has 1. FC Heidenheim at 44 percent, with the draw at 25 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.8 goals from 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.8 from Holstein Kiel, a combined 3.6, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Five markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 83 percent, 1. FC Heidenheim or Holstein Kiel at 75 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 70 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 8.7 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

1. FC Heidenheim1.82

Holstein Kiel1.81

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.