AD Fazendense vs CF Estrela Amadora Prediction: a narrow AD Fazendense win

The prediction

Model backs Over 2.5 at 74% — combined xG 4.0.

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today85%1.18
• AD Fazendense or CF Estrela AmadoraDouble chance tips today80%1.25
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today74%1.35
• Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today69%1.45
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today61%1.64
• Correct score 2-1Correct score tips today7.9%12.66

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has AD Fazendense at 46 percent, with the draw at 20 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 2.1 goals from AD Fazendense and 1.8 from CF Estrela Amadora, a combined 4.0, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Five markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 85 percent, AD Fazendense or CF Estrela Amadora at 80 percent and Over 2.5 goals at 74 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 2-1, though at 7.9 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

AD Fazendense2.14

CF Estrela Amadora1.84

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.