Denver Summit FC vs Angel City FC Prediction: a narrow Denver Summit FC win

The prediction

Model backs Over 2.5 at 60% — combined xG 3.2.

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today81%1.23
• Denver Summit FC or Angel City FCDouble chance tips today76%1.32
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today60%1.67
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.5%9.52

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Denver Summit FC at 44 percent, with the draw at 24 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.7 goals from Denver Summit FC and 1.5 from Angel City FC, a combined 3.2, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Over 1.5 goals at 81 percent, Denver Summit FC or Angel City FC at 76 percent and Over 2.5 goals at 60 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.5 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Denver Summit FC1.71

Angel City FC1.47

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.