FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg Prediction: a narrow VfL Wolfsburg win

The prediction

Both teams to score priced 64% — both attacks priced to score (xG 1.4 / 1.8).

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today82%1.22
• FC St. Pauli or VfL WolfsburgDouble chance tips today75%1.33
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today75%1.33
• Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today64%1.56
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today62%1.61
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.3%9.71

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result it splits close to evenly, 36 percent FC St. Pauli, 25 percent the draw and 39 percent VfL Wolfsburg. That is a fixture the model will not call a winner in, and the honest read is that the value sits in the other markets rather than on the result. The model expects roughly 1.4 goals from FC St. Pauli and 1.8 from VfL Wolfsburg, a combined 3.2, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Five markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 82 percent, FC St. Pauli or VfL Wolfsburg at 75 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 75 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.3 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

FC St. Pauli1.44

VfL Wolfsburg1.76

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.