Japan vs New Zealand Prediction: a Japan win

The prediction

Japan favoured at 76% — model xG 2.3 vs 0.8.

Every market we call on this match

• Japan or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• Japan (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today85%1.18
• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today80%1.25
• Japan to winMatch result tips today76%1.32
• Correct score 2-0Correct score tips today12.2%8.20

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Japan at 76 percent, with the draw at 16 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 2.3 goals from Japan and 0.8 from New Zealand, a combined 3.1, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Japan or draw at 85 percent, Japan (draw no bet) at 85 percent and Over 1.5 goals at 80 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 2-0, though at 12.2 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Japan2.33

New Zealand0.77

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.