Kyrgyzstan vs Maldives Prediction: a narrow Kyrgyzstan win

The prediction

Kyrgyzstan favoured at 86% — model xG 1.7 vs 0.8.

Every market we call on this match

• Kyrgyzstan to winMatch result tips today85%1.18
• Kyrgyzstan or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• Kyrgyzstan (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today81%1.23
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today72%1.39
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today14.1%7.09

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Kyrgyzstan at 86 percent, with the draw at 10 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 1.7 goals from Kyrgyzstan and 0.8 from Maldives, a combined 2.5, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Kyrgyzstan to win at 85 percent, Kyrgyzstan or draw at 85 percent and Kyrgyzstan (draw no bet) at 81 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 14.1 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Kyrgyzstan1.73

Maldives0.78

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.