Leiston vs Guiseley AFC Prediction: a narrow Leiston win

The prediction

Model backs Over 1.5 at 80% — combined xG 3.1.

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today80%1.25
• Leiston or Guiseley AFCDouble chance tips today77%1.30
• Leiston (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today66%1.52
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.6%9.43

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Leiston at 51 percent, with the draw at 23 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.8 goals from Leiston and 1.3 from Guiseley AFC, a combined 3.1, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Over 1.5 goals at 80 percent, Leiston or Guiseley AFC at 77 percent and Leiston (draw no bet) at 66 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.6 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Leiston1.80

Guiseley AFC1.29

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.