Penafiel vs Leça FC Prediction: a narrow Leça FC win

The prediction

Model backs Over 2.5 at 65% — combined xG 3.4.

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today84%1.19
• Penafiel or Leça FCDouble chance tips today77%1.30
• Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today65%1.54
• Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today63%1.59
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today61%1.64
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today9.6%10.42

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result it splits close to evenly, 36 percent Penafiel, 23 percent the draw and 42 percent Leça FC. That is a fixture the model will not call a winner in, and the honest read is that the value sits in the other markets rather than on the result. The model expects roughly 1.6 goals from Penafiel and 1.8 from Leça FC, a combined 3.4, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Five markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 84 percent, Penafiel or Leça FC at 77 percent and Over 2.5 goals at 65 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 9.6 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Penafiel1.65

Leça FC1.77

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.